The third game of the day on Wednesday, Dec. 29, sees Oklahoma State and Arizona travel to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

This was a January bowl last year for the first time, but it’s back to a more familiar spot here. It also welcomes a new conference affiliation this year—the Pac-10 replaces the Big Ten as the opponent for the Big 12.

Kickoff is at 9:00 p.m. EST.

These teams have never met, but there is still a revenge factor in play here. Oklahoma State Head Coach Mike Gundy has repeatedly been made to look ridiculous by Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. He just can’t beat him. Bob’s little brother Mike coaches Arizona, so this is a much more manageable opportunity for Gundy to finally get the best of the Stoops family.

Oklahoma State came into this season with very low expectations—they were widely picked to finish fourth or fifth in their division. Their best player from last year, Dez Bryant, headed to Dallas, and it seemed like he took the momentum with him. Instead, though, the team was surprisingly strong, and would have played in the Big 12 Championship if they had only beaten Oklahoma.

Quarterback Brandon Weeden has been brilliant, and Justin Blackmon has made everyone forget about Bryant. Blackmon has set a record by amassing at least 100 yards of offense in each of the 11 games he played, and that has helped the team to the second best passing offense in the country. Needless to say, Arizona needs to deal with that if they want to win.

Arizona’s expectations were much higher before the season. They were viewed as a legitimate contender in a murky Pac-10 race, and for eight games they lived up to those expectations—they were 7-1. Four straight losses to cap the season turned a great season into yet another frustrating one, though. This team was simply ugly down the stretch. If they put together a similar effort here then they will be in trouble.

Arizona QB Nick Foles can throw the ball around nicely, too, and Oklahoma State’s defense is nothing to write home about. The Wildcats will be able to score. The key matchup for this game, then, is that potent Oklahoma State offense against Arizona’s defense.

The Wildcats play decent defense, and can stop the pass nicely. They have the far superior defense in this game, but it will be tested like it has just once before this year—by Oregon. That certainly didn’t end well, as the Ducks scored 48.

Alamo Bowl Odds—Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

Oklahoma State opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to the college football lines, but it has fallen to 5.5, and can even be found at 5.0. Action is very heavily tilted to the Cowboys, so smart money appears to be on Arizona given the line movement. The total opened at 64 and is creeping upward to as high as 66.

Oklahoma State vs. Arizona Betting Trends

Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Arizona has gone “over” in five of their last six games. They have covered just two of their last seven games played on grass.

Alamo Bowl Predictions and Betting Picks

It’s hard not to bet on the Cowboys here. I have little respect for the Pac-10 outside of the top two teams, and I think they will be outclassed by a strong Big 12 team.

Arizona’s offense is a step behind Oklahoma State’s, and though the defense is solid, it isn’t good enough to shut down the Cowboys entirely. If Arizona was on a roll coming in it would be a different story, but they really aren’t, so the Cowboys seem likely to win by a touchdown or more and represent value here as a result.

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