... is at least one surprise team that makes the NFL playoffs every year. Indeed, if you were to look at the last several years, there is always one team that makes a massive six or seven game leap into the second season.

Last year, both the Dolphins and the Ravens had those kind of seasons. The Ravens weren’t much of a surprise, having been one of the league’s elite teams for most of the decade. But the Dolphins? Even hardcore Miami fans weren’t predicting the Fins to go from one win to AFC East champs.

Most prognosticators kill themselves trying to figure out who that team will be. Or they get seduced by a team that finished strong a year ago. But in the end, the NFL seems to hold serve fairly well and there are actual...

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